Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 23.012194 25.075714 27.318149 29.949822 32.971495 36.354009 40.457444
2025-08-10 19.474886 22.198152 25.366305 29.375563 34.389729 40.560285 48.904187
2025-08-17 17.190656 20.294919 24.107880 29.245423 36.168044 45.463895 59.450596
2025-08-24 15.399911 18.687816 22.904907 28.888706 37.485168 49.974466 70.797609
2025-08-31 14.035798 17.420935 21.921782 28.597477 38.748690 54.613611 83.878503
2025-09-07 12.944652 16.372230 21.070273 28.311261 39.896135 59.275696 98.779380
2025-09-14 12.085428 15.539148 20.401858 28.160878 41.174067 64.418279 116.897042
2025-09-21 11.306972 14.738820 19.680992 27.804342 42.004987 68.930958 136.023075
2025-09-28 10.995342 14.572529 19.868111 28.900609 45.551675 79.740064 177.816402
2025-10-05 10.423585 13.970667 19.321414 28.685765 46.614685 85.665522 211.017164
2025-10-12 9.943459 13.467445 18.878161 28.582567 47.860556 92.422554 253.875689
2025-10-19 9.601099 13.147194 18.694353 28.908228 50.034096 102.275983 321.833692
2025-10-26 9.182164 12.687750 18.257055 28.740896 51.190899 110.147893 396.253461
2025-11-02 8.790299 12.246810 17.816609 28.518731 52.201200 118.163921 491.269904
2025-11-09 8.477683 11.912803 17.530747 28.562118 53.852687 129.076755 642.876570
2025-11-16 8.143248 11.523099 17.118273 28.304623 54.729845 137.982141 821.251640
2025-11-23 7.839417 11.166151 16.736885 28.067118 55.619621 147.564822 1074.051200
2025-11-30 7.556867 10.828977 16.366719 27.812006 56.421653 157.439725 1435.402603
2025-12-07 7.312608 10.542862 16.068685 27.677659 57.536283 169.531496 2045.724606
2025-12-14 7.057542 10.225772 15.693331 27.336309 58.008090 179.236998 2879.331170
2025-12-21 7.003955 10.247938 15.944567 28.408801 62.893277 215.379765 7926.460719
2025-12-28 6.792854 9.987642 15.647020 28.201099 63.826325 231.265438 16684.428336
2026-01-04 6.607922 9.764415 15.406348 28.101390 65.101219 250.968249 57673.298603